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Amazon Prime Day Predictions

Several key themes emerge as The Mars Agency’s Ecommerce experts present their forecast for this year’s big event.

Since Amazon first launched Prime Day in 2015, commerce marketers across all product categories have come to excitedly anticipate this massive sales event.

Other retailers have launched their own events (“Walmart+ Week” runs July 10-13) in an attempt to compete with Amazon’s annual blockbuster, which generated nearly $12 billion in total sales last year, according to estimates from Adobe. And as Amazon’s self-created shopping “holiday” matures, the ecommerce giant continues to iterate new innovation to drive higher sales and grow the ranks of Prime members (which have topped 200 million worldwide).

New for 2023 is an “Invite-only” program that lets Prime members request to receive guaranteed opportunities for the big-ticket deals that are expected to sell out. Amazon is also promoting Buy With Prime, which gives members access to deals being offered by partnering third-party retailers. In addition, Amazon is also using the occasion to push its Prime Visa card by dangling a $200 gift card on approval.

With Prime Day 2023 officially set for July 11-12, The Mars Agency’s Amazon Commerce team peered into their separate crystal balls to make predictions about how this year’s event will play out. Not surprisingly, some common themes have emerged.

Kelly McLane, Senior Manager, Ecommerce

I think we’ll see brands — especially in the CPG space — try to capitalize on Prime Day’s increased traffic by offering Vendor Powered Coupons (VPCs) and Subscribe & Save deals on their top-selling products. While it makes sense for brands that sell premium products like electronics to offer official Prime Day Deals, brands that are less-considered purchases can still take advantage of the event by incentivizing shoppers with cost savings.

Additionally, I think we’ll see brands focusing more on Gen Z shoppers. The older portion of this age group is entering their early to mid-twenties, becoming financially independent from their parents and increasing their spending power. Prime Day gives brands the perfect opportunity to introduce products to this increasingly important age group.

Jordan Sagisi, Senior Director, Amazon Commerce

I expect this to be another year where consumers focus on the basics and not indulgences. Shoppers are definitely ready for Prime Day Deals, but household essentials will generate greater sales volume than consumer electronics. If shoppers are like me, they already have their Amazon carts loaded with go-to toothpaste, detergent, and contact lens items — just waiting for large CPGs to put those products on deal.

Kayla Corridon, Director, Commerce Media

I expect beauty and personal care essentials to win out over luxury tech. This is a prevailing trend that should be evident in Prime Day shopping carts through a substantial rise in sales for beauty tools and personal care items like skincare. While electronics usually dominate Prime Day sales, this year’s macroeconomic conditions, along with overstocks in the category, could potentially cause sales volume to be overshadowed by purchases in essentials. So this year’s event may very well be a significant milestone for the beauty and personal care sector.

Lauren Baugh, Senior Manager, Ecommerce

We’ll definitely see the biggest discounts on Amazon’s own devices but should also find significant savings on other major tech brands as we have in previous years — which is perfect timing for delivering seasonal back to school essentials. While shoppers will definitely show up for the deals, basket sizes will likely be smaller given current economic pressures. I think we’ll also continue to see growth among Amazon Marketplace sellers as third-party companies take advantage of the event as well.

Michella Chiu, Director, Ecommerce Strategy

With shoppers fighting inflation, I predict that the “small delights” in their lives will be treated as “huge delights” this year. In the past, we’ve seen alcoholic beverages play the role of providing everyday delights. This year, however, my bet is on home goods and gardening items — a trend that doesn’t necessarily diverge too much from the alcohol surge, since an increasing number of Millennials and Gen Z’ers are looking to build their own bars at home!

Alyssa Holland, Director, Analytics

My crystal ball prediction is that Influencers will spark significant interest for “must-have” fashion and personal care product. Because the event is taking place as families prep for back to school, it also should give shoppers an opportunity to save specifically on clothing and shoes. I can imagine electronics still being a prime focus for window shopping but, given the current state of the economy, that might only result in sales for heavily discounted or smaller-ticket items that frugal shoppers won’t be able to pass up.

Kristin Wall, VP-Ecommerce

Although planned spending is forecast to be down due to ongoing concerns over inflation, shoppers still love a good deal, and Amazon is rolling out new promotional opportunities that will compete for the share of wallet that’s still available. Grocery and personal care categories were hot during Prime Day last year, and I suspect these will again be top of mind for shoppers looking to save on beauty, pantry, and household essentials for travel and other summer activities — along with wanting to get an early start on back-to-school shopping. Even beyond that, Amazon’s $200 gift-card offer to new credit cardholders, and the invite-only access to deals spanning multiple departments including Amazon devices, electronics and home & kitchen, could have Prime members using Prime Day as an opportunity to even get a head start on holiday shopping by saving on bigger-ticket purchases.


The Mars Agency’s Ecommerce team knows that succeeding through online marketplaces requires quality content, winning the search algorithm, and a whole lot more. Our experts take clients to a new level of success by providing end-to-end business management, including operations, advertising, and digital shelf optimization. Using the agency’s proprietary data platform, our Digital Shelf Studio creates, enhances and optimizes client activity across the ecommerce landscape, helping them beat the competition and convert shoppers. To learn more, contact Kristin Wall at [email protected].

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